China’s National Bureau of Statistics reported 369,300 industrial robots produced in H1 2025 — a 35.6% increase year-on-year. This is the largest six-month output in the history of industrial robotics. The raw number matters less than what it reveals about which sectors are driving demand, which manufacturers are winning, and what the growth rate implies for global robot supply dynamics through 2027.
Breaking Down the 35.6% Growth Rate
Not all sectors are growing at the same rate. The 35.6% aggregate obscures significant variation by application. New energy vehicles (NEV) and battery production account for the largest absolute volume increment — approximately 45,000 additional robots in H1 2025 versus H1 2024. China’s NEV output reached 5.97 million units in H1 2025 (up 35.7% YoY), almost exactly matching the robot growth rate. This is not coincidence: NEV production is the single largest robotics demand driver in China. Each new NEV factory requires 1,200 to 2,000 industrial robots. China added capacity for approximately 2 million additional NEV units in H1 2025 — representing 2,400 to 4,000 new robot installations from this sector alone.
The second growth driver is photovoltaic (solar panel) manufacturing. China added approximately 80 GW of PV production capacity in H1 2025. Each GW of PV manufacturing capacity requires approximately 600 to 900 robot installations for cell handling, stringing, and module assembly. This translates to 48,000 to 72,000 robots from PV alone — 13 to 20% of total H1 output.
The Domestic Brand Shift Continues
Chinese domestic robot manufacturers supplied 52% of all industrial robots installed in China in 2024. Preliminary H1 2025 data from industry associations suggests this share reached 56 to 58% in H1 2025 — an acceleration of the substitution trend. The brands driving the share gain are the same three that dominated the 2024 market share rankings: Estun (9.4%), Inovance (9.1%), and Efort (growing). FANUC held its 11.1% share but absolute unit growth is flat as the domestic brands absorb all net demand growth.
Export Volume: A New Development
H1 2025 saw Chinese industrial robot exports reach 28,700 units — up 67% year-on-year. The primary destinations: Southeast Asia (Vietnam, Thailand, Indonesia: 41%), Eastern Europe (Poland, Czech Republic, Romania: 23%), Mexico (12%), and the Middle East (9%). The export surge reflects two factors: Chinese manufacturers have completed the quality gap versus Japanese and European brands on standard applications, and their price advantage (20 to 40% below equivalent foreign brands) is compelling for the labor-cost-sensitive manufacturing sectors that dominate these geographies.
What 35.6% Growth Implies for 2026 and 2027
If China maintains even 20% growth through 2026 — a conservative assumption given the NEV and PV pipelines — annual Chinese robot production crosses 800,000 units. At that volume, Chinese manufacturers will supply approximately 60% of all industrial robots installed globally, up from approximately 45% today. The global competitive implications for FANUC, ABB, KUKA, and Yaskawa are structural: they face a market where the largest single geography is shifting to domestic alternatives, and the domestic alternatives are now competitive on quality.
Full ranking of Chinese robot manufacturers: Top 40 China Robot Rankings 2025. Factory profiles: Efort, Siasun, Estun.
Sources
- China NBS: Industrial robot output statistics H1 2025 (July 2025)
- China Association of Automobile Manufacturers: NEV production H1 2025
- ESM China: Chinese robot manufacturer market share H1 2025
